Good afternoon everyone, it’s Chris Bengel back with you.
You know what is frustrating me? We’re being robbed of the opportunity of seeing history as of late. On Tuesday, the Blue Jays walked Yankees slugger Aaron Judge four times. Since homering on Sept. 20 against the Pirates for No. 60, Judge has been walked a staggering 12 times. Teams just don’t appear to be pitching to him, which is unfortunate for all of us fans. He’ll get another shot at tying Roger Maris’ record of 61 home runs on Wednesday against the Blue Jays. Pitch to the man and give him an opportunity to make history.
Anyway, let’s dive into tonight’s picks on the diamond.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Dodgers at Padres, 9:40 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
Latest Odds: Los Angeles Dodgers -140 Bet Now
Key Trend : The Dodgers are 50-15 in their last 65 games against a right-handed starter
: The Dodgers are 50-15 in their last 65 games against a right-handed starter The Pick: Dodgers (-140)
It’s rare that bettors can get the Dodgers at a fairly low price, but when those opportunities come around, we have to take advantage of them. I’m certainly not hesitating when the Dodgers are sending their top starting pitcher Julio Urias to the mound.
Urias is tied for second in MLB wins (17) and the 26-year-old hurler has really turned it on over the final two months of the 2022 season. Over his last nine starts, Urias has tallied a 7-1 record along with a 0.89 ERA and 54 strikeouts. He has allowed just one earned run or fewer in all but one of those starts. Just how did Urias do in that other start where he allowed more than one run? The left-hander yielded two earned runs on just five hits against the Padres. Simply put: Urias is downright electric right now.
Jonathan Coachman is joined by Larry Hartstein, Mike McClure and John Bollman to dish out Wednesday’s best bets. Download and follow The Early Edge on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Meanwhile, the Padres will have Joe Musgrove on the bump, who is certainly no slouch by comparison. However, the veteran right-hander has surrendered at least four earned runs in two of his last four starts. In one of four-run outings, Musgrove gave up four earned runs on six hits against the Dodgers on Sept. 11. The Dodgers lead the majors in runs, so it’s obvious that this lineup has the potential to get to Musgrove. Even if they only score a few runs, it should be more than enough considering how dominant Urias has been on the mound as of late.
💰 More MLB picks
USATSI
Rays at Guardians, 6:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
Latest Odds: Under 6.5 Bet Now
The Pick: Under 6.5 runs (-120): — We are getting a stellar pitching matchup on Wednesday when the Guardians host the Rays. Triston McKenzie, who has been one of the better pitchers in the second half, will be on the mound for the Guardians while Tyler Glasnow will be making his 2022 season debut for the Rays. Considering the tremendous stuff that these two arms possess, the under is the play for me in this spot.
McKenzie has been downright terrific since the All-Star break. He has only yielded more than two earned runs in four of his 12 starts during the second half of the season. McKenzie is coming off an impressive outing against the White Sox in which he surrendered just two earned runs on six hits while recording 13 strikeouts in eight innings. On top of his recent success, the Rays have scored two or fewer runs in five of their last eight games, so McKenzie certainly has the potential to shut them down.
On the other hand, Glasnow is likely going to be on a pitch count considering he’s making his season debut following Tommy John surgery. Still, it’s hard to believe that Glasnow won’t have shades of his old self on display. Even if Glasnow doesn’t toss more than a few innings, the Rays also possess the sixth-best bullpen ERA (3.30) in all of baseball.
Key Trend: The under is 4-1 in the Rays’ last five games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15
Blue Jays at Yankees, 7:07 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Gerrit Cole Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+102): — Perhaps you guys (and probably the editor of this newsletter, Nick Parco) are going to think I’m crazy for this one. However, I feel confident about taking the under here on Gerrit Cole’s strikeout prop tonight.
Look, Cole has been pitching well of late and has registered at least eight strikeouts in each of his last four starts. That would lead you to believe that the over would have to be the play. Negative. In Cole’s two starts against the Blue Jays this season, he’s recorded six strikeouts or fewer. In fact, Cole hasn’t registered more than six punch-outs in his last five starts against the Blue Jays dating back to the 2021 season. It also doesn’t hurt that the Blue Jays are one of the more disciplined teams in baseball at the plate as they strike out the fifth-fewest times in all of baseball.
Key Trend: Cole has registered six or fewer strikeouts in each of his two starts against the Blue Jays this season
Take advantage of the Dodgers at a fairly low price | A Yankees play that isn’t about Aaron Judge’s next homer
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