Google’s (NASDAQ:GOOG) (GOOGL) incorporation of generative AI into its voice assistant will be abandoned amid tight regulation and Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) will get into live sports. Those are among a list of 85 predictions made by consultancy CCS Insight for the tech world for 2024 and beyond.
The UK firm is holding an online event this week to discuss its predictions that delve into the potential ways that future technology could benefit various aspects of life.
The research firm said it also expects Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) to take greater control of the secondhand market for its iPhones, while Intel (INTC) and AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) stand to lose market share.
Below are some of the highlights from the report.
Google
Get read for the AI backlash. Google’s (GOOG) (GOOGL) next voice assistant speaker incorporates Bard functionality — its generative AI product — which will likely spark a public backlash, CCS Insight said.
By using the capabilities of generative AI, the voice assistant can produce dynamic and creative responses to questions, transcending the traditional, limited preprogrammed responses of current generation assistants.
As a result, concerns about the accuracy and potential for harm of generative AI responses will prompt calls for tighter regulation, CCS Insight explained, adding that it believes the concept will join the long list of Google’s (GOOG) (GOOGL) abandoned projects.
Apple
By the end of this year, more than half of iPhones in use are expected to be second-hand devices.
Pre-owned iPhones and hand-me downs are expected to make up more than 50% of the 1.3 billion devices in use by the end of 2023.
“The second-hand market continues to take a larger share of sales as the appetite for used devices grows and the circular economy extends the life of devices,” CCS Insight said, estimating that the average life of an iPhone is eight years.
Given the increasing popularity of refurbished iPhones, which CCS Insight estimates account for 80% of the organized secondary market, Apple (AAPL) is likely to take more direct control of the secondary markets in Europe and the US. Used sales will also dent sales of new models.
The popularity of used devices could prove to be a boon in India, where Apple has been expanding its presence.
Intel, AMD, Arm and more
Intel (INTC) and AMD (AMD) could lose market share as alternative architectures such as Arm (ARM) and RISC-V serve a fifth of enterprise workloads by 2028.
The combination of cost optimization, energy efficiency and increased demand for data processing at the edge means alternatives to traditional x86-64 CPUs from Intel (INTC) and AMD (AMD) will see increased market share.
AWS Graviton (AMZN) and Ampere Altra are enterprise-grade CPUs using the Arm (ARM) instruction set found more commonly in lower-power smartphones and tablets. Start-ups such as Ventana and SiFive are designing increasingly high-power designs for the royalty-free RISC-V instruction set, and Alibaba Cloud (BABA) is pursuing the adoption of RISC-V with its XuanTie CPUs, the firm said.
Netflix
Netflix (NFLX) has been reluctant to offer live sports because of concerns about the high price and limited opportunities to offer such programming to a large-scale audience. That hesitation is coming to an end, CCS Insight predicted. Slowing customer growth and competition from other streaming providers will force the company into live sports, initially with a “low-profile investment, targeted at its young and tech-savvy audience.”
The logical place to start would be baseball, golf, ice hockey and motor sports, given their popularity with U.S. viewers.
The days of watching reruns of Lost are coming to an end. CCS Insight expects that at least 5% of viewing will take place on extended reality devices by 2027.
Netflix (NFLX) should see a surge in demand from people watching in “big screen” experiences on headsets.
“We forecast the installed base of virtual and augmented reality devices to hit 209 million units in 2027,” the company said.
Google to face AI backlash, Netflix getting into live sports: 2024 predictions
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