The Associated Press Top 25 poll was released earlier this week, putting the college football season officially on the horizon. With high praise comes lofty expectations, and historic data shows that at least one team ranked in the initial top 10 will finish the season unranked.
Since 2000, 45 preseason top-10 teams have finished the season unranked. USC was the most recent team (preseason ranked No. 6) to fall victim, and three programs fit the bill (Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Baylor) in 2022.
When examining the preseason poll, there are reasons to believe one of this year’s top 10 teams could follow a similar fate. While it would take something catastrophic for Georgia to go from preseason No. 1 to unranked, there are compelling cases for Florida State and reigning national champion Michigan to take a step back.
The Wolverines begin a new era this fall after winning their first national title since 1997. Sherrone Moore replaces Jim Harbaugh, who bounced for the NFL for the vacant job with the Los Angeles Chargers. Moore is tasked with replacing over a dozen key players who departed the program for the next level. Florida State also lost several key contributors from last year’s team. The Seminoles are looking to bounce back from a bitter end to the 2023 campaign that included a snub from the College Football Playoff field and a blowout 63-3 loss to Georgia in the Orange Bowl.
Preseason top 10 teams that finished unranked since 2015
Year School Initial ranking 2023 USC 6 2022 Texas A&M 6 2022 Oklahoma 9 2022 Baylor 10 2021 Texas A&M 6 2021 Iowa State 7 2021 North Carolina 10 2020 LSU 6 2020 Penn State 7 2020 Oregon 9 2018 Wisconsin 4 2018 Miami (FL) 8 2018 Auburn 9 2017 Florida State 3 2016 Notre Dame 10 2015 Auburn 6 2015 USC 8 2015 Georgia 9
Our CBS Sports experts weighed in on which preseason AP top 10 could join this dubious list in 2024.
Texas
Preseason rank: No. 4
The Longhorns are a deserving preseason No. 4 and legitimate national championship contender. That said, the case is a little more complicated than people realize. Last year, Texas rode an elite run defense and explosive skill talent to the College Football Playoff. Almost every player from those two phases is gone. The incredible interior line duo of T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy II are off to the NFL. So are top draft picks Xavier Worthy, Jonathan Brooks, Ja’Tavion Sanders and Adonai Mitchell. Texas’ red zone offense was one of the worst in the nation at converting red zone trips to touchdowns, and losing running back CJ Baxter to a season-ending injury certainly won’t help the Longhorns in that department. Texas reloaded in the transfer portal and has recruited well, but there’s no guarantee that the newcomers will be able to match last season’s production. Plus, the schedule is much more difficult now that the Longhorns are in the SEC. Games against No. 1 Georgia, No. 9 Michigan, No. 16 Oklahoma and No. 20 Texas A&M are all extremely loseable. Texas went 4-10 in one-score games in Steve Sarkisian’s first two seasons. Last year, the Longhorns were 3-2 in such contests. More close games are certainly on the docket in the Southeastern Conference. If there’s a slip-up against a team like Arkansas or Kentucky, the season could go the wrong direction. — Shehan Jeyarajah
Alabama
Preseason rank: No. 5
The ingredients for a championship are here, but so are the ingredients for a collapse as Kalen DeBoer gets his first taste of SEC football. The Crimson Tide could, in theory, start 2-2 as their final two games of September are at Wisconsin and vs. Georgia. October tilts against Tennessee and Missouri could also be challenging for a squad that has questions in the secondary and at receiver. Finally, November games at LSU and at Oklahoma will be major challenges leading into a tricky finale against rival Auburn. DeBoer is a great coach with a talented roster, but everyone will be adjusting on the fly against a series of tough opponents. That could make the Crimson Tide vulnerable to be this year’s top-10 bust. — David Cobb
Notre Dame
Preseason rank: No. 7
From the outset, there’s a chance Notre Dame immediately falls out of the AP’s top 10 if the Fighting Irish lose to Texas A&M later this month in College Station. That’s quite an opener on the road inside one of college football’s loudest venues without left tackle Charles Jagusah (out for the season) and breaking in a new quarterback, Riley Leonard, who’s coming off his own injury. The good news? Notre Dame will not face another nationally-ranked opponent until Week 11 at home against Florida State, so the wheels would have to come off for Marcus Freeman’s team to be out of the playoff conversation during the final month of the campaign. However, if the Fighting Irish lose to the only opponents of substance they take on all season, it’s hard to imagine poll voters holding a positive opinion of this group. The other potential losses on the schedule come via Louisville (Sept. 28), at Georgia Tech (Oct. 19) and at USC (Nov. 30). — Brad Crawford
Michigan
Preseason rank: No. 9
Michigan’s not going to look anything like the team that won a national championship around seven months ago. The Wolverines lost head coach Jim Harbaugh — rookie Sherrone Moore (Michigan’s former offensive coordinator) will replace him — and defensive coordinator Jesse Minter to the NFL. Running backs coach Mike Hart departed the program and the Wolverines have to replace 18 players who started at least half of the team’s games in 2023. That includes quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who was selected No. 10 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. The options to take his job are largely unproven. Factor in all that instability and inexperience with a schedule that sees Michigan play three preseason AP top-five teams and the margin for error seems very thin. — Will Backus
Florida State
Preseason rank: No. 10
Florida State could be due for a
AP Top 25 poll reaction: CBS Sports staff picks five early frontrunners that could finish season unranked
- Advertisment - 
Recent Comments
on Iowa State starting RB Jirehl Brock among latest college football players charged in gambling probe
on The Rev. Al Sharpton to lead protest after Florida governor’s ban of African American studies course
on Sports World Hails ‘Superwoman’ Lindsey Vonn for Her Grand Comeback Despite Career-Changing Injury
on San Mateo County Community College District sues five companies over role in ‘pay to play’ scandal
on Saipan, placid island setting for Assange’s last battle, is briefly mobbed – and bemused by the fuss
on ‘Pokémon Scarlet’ and ‘Violet’ Fan Theories Suggest Legendary Time Travel, Alternate Dimension Plot
on Joe Manchin and Tommy Tuberville introduce bill on name, image and likeness rules for college sports
on Inside the Michael Jordan ‘Air’ movie, plus why NFL, others are buying into the sports film industry
on If you’re a frequent traveler, these wrap tops from Aday will revolutionize your on-the-go wardrobe
on How Does Jack Nicklaus Travel? Exploring the Private Jets Owned by the ‘Golden Bear’ Over the Years
on Hollywood Reporter: Tom Cruise negotiated with movie studios over AI before the actors strike began
on Ford Blue Cruise: US regulators investigate fatal crashes involving hands-free driving technology
on Dozens of boats cruise the Seine in a rehearsal for the Paris Olympics’ opening ceremony on July 26
on Devout athletes find strength in their faith. But practicing it and elite sports can pose hurdles
on Despite strong Lunar New Year holiday data, consumer spending in China isn’t roaring back just yet
on David and Victoria Beckham so ‘Charmed’ by Tom Cruise They Have His Photos on Display at Their Home
on CONCEPT ART: New Details Revealed for Disney Cruise Line Lookout Cay at Lighthouse Point Destination
on CBS Sports announces Matt Ryan will join NFL studio show. Longtime analysts Simms and Esiason depart
on Boston College vs. Army live stream, how to watch online, CBS Sports Network channel finder, odds
on Boise State vs. Air Force live stream, odds, channel, prediction, how to watch on CBS Sports Network
on Biden to tout bill’s prescription drug prices, energy provisions in pitch to Americans, aide says
on After UFC Fallout, Conor McGregor Offers a Valuable Piece of Advice to Free Agent Francis Ngannou
on 2024 Super Bowl: CBS Sports Network and CBS Sports HQ to combine for 115 hours of weeklong coverage
on ‘Best Intention’: Chris Kirk Has Absolute Trust in Jay Monahan and PGA Tour’s Widely Debated Model
on 2023 NFL All-Rookie Team: CBS Sports draft expert, former GM unveil league’s best first-year players
on “Completely Knocked Me Out”: Rob Lowe Recalls Boxing Match With Tom Cruise On 1983 Brat Pack Classic
on CONCEPT ART: New Details Revealed for Disney Cruise Line Lookout Cay at Lighthouse Point Destination
on “Completely Knocked Me Out”: Rob Lowe Recalls Boxing Match With Tom Cruise On 1983 Brat Pack Classic
on CBS Sports announces Matt Ryan will join NFL studio show. Longtime analysts Simms and Esiason depart
on Carlos Sainz’s Soccer Fanboy Emerges as Spaniard Shares Defining Moment With This Real Madrid Legend
on Biden: ‘At this point I’m not’ planning to visit East Palestine, Ohio, after toxic train derailment
on ‘Best Intention’: Chris Kirk Has Absolute Trust in Jay Monahan and PGA Tour’s Widely Debated Model
on Ahead of big sports weekend, dispute with Disney leaves millions of cable subscribers in the dark
on A heavy wave of Russian missile attacks pounds areas across Ukraine, killing at least 4 civilians
on 2024 Super Bowl: CBS Sports Network and CBS Sports HQ to combine for 115 hours of weeklong coverage
on 2023 NFL All-Rookie Team: CBS Sports draft expert, former GM unveil league’s best first-year players
on Army vs. Coastal Carolina live stream, how to watch online, CBS Sports Network channel finder, odds
on AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez Spreads Joy and Sportsmanship to the Youth of Loma de Cabrera
on After UFC Fallout, Conor McGregor Offers a Valuable Piece of Advice to Free Agent Francis Ngannou
on Dubai International Airport sees 41.6 million passengers in first half of year, more than in 2019
on Devout athletes find strength in their faith. But practicing it and elite sports can pose hurdles
on Despite strong Lunar New Year holiday data, consumer spending in China isn’t roaring back just yet
on Dave Portnoy: Taylor Swift’s security should ‘drag Kim Kardashian to jail’ if she attends Eras Tour
on CONCEPT ART: New Details Revealed for Disney Cruise Line Lookout Cay at Lighthouse Point Destination
on “Completely Knocked Me Out”: Rob Lowe Recalls Boxing Match With Tom Cruise On 1983 Brat Pack Classic
on CBS Sports, Serie A announce new TV rights deal; Paramount+ to air over 400 Italian soccer matches
on Cam Newton’s Violent Public Incident Draws Hilarious Reaction From 3x All-Star: “Where Do I Sign Up
on Boston College vs. Army live stream, how to watch online, CBS Sports Network channel finder, odds
on Angel Reese Launches Foundation Dedicated To Empowering Women Through Sports & Financial Literacy
on A weaker dollar, skyrocketing prices and ‘record’ visitor numbers: Good luck in Europe this summer