Russia has made marginal gains in the grueling battle for Bakhmut, in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, as Vladimir Putin’s forces are increasingly turning to using Kh-555 cruise missiles in a nearby city that’s being viewed with renewed military importance, a U.S.-based think tank said.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), based in Washington D.C., said in its latest assessment of the conflict that on Monday Russian forces likely made additional gains in southwestern and northern Bakhmut as well as in the northwest of Bakhmut between Bohdanivka and Khromove, amid a reported increase in the tempo of Russian operations around Avdiivka.
As clashes intensified in the fight for Bakhmut, Ukraine said on Monday the small eastern town of Avdiivka could soon become a “second Bakhmut.” The British defense ministry said on Monday that Russian forces had reportedly “made creeping gains” in the Ukrainian-held Donbas city of Avdiivka, located about 90 kilometers (56 miles) south of Bakhmut.
“Russian forces are likely increasing the tempo of operations north of Avdiivka in an effort to set conditions for the encirclement of the settlement and are reportedly employing a greater number of aviation units in the area to support these operations,” the ISW said on Monday.
The think tank noted Avdiivka Mayor Vitaly Barabash told AFP on Monday that Russian forces are increasingly using Kh-59, Kh-101, Kh-555 and S-300 missiles in the Avdiivka area.
Kh-555 missiles are Russian air-launched cruise missiles, carried and launched by bomber aircraft, and used as long-range standoff weapons. It is a conventional version of the Kh-55, and was accepted for service in 2004. Compared to the Kh-55, it has improved accuracy and increased range.
The Kh-101 is a cruise missile carried by strategic bombers and launched in the air. In December, Ukraine’s Air Force Command said Russia had launched at least 76 missiles, including the Kh-101 missiles (ALCMs) as part of a barrage of strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
The S-300 is Soviet-era surface-to-air missile system that was first put into operation in the late 1970s, while the Kh-59 is an air-to-surface guided missile.
Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy head of Ukrainian military intelligence, told RBC-Ukraine in an interview published in January that Russia’s supplies of high-precision missiles, including Kh-101, Kh-555 and Kalibr missiles, are running low.
He said that according to his estimates, Russia has enough missile supplies left for only two or three more of the mass strikes it has launched in recent months against Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure.
The ISW said it previously reported that this increased tempo of Russian operations in the Avdiivka area has reportedly led to major losses and “is likely a misguided effort to pull Ukrainian forces away from other areas of the front.”
It is unlikely that Russian forces will be able to sustain this increased tempo, the think tank said.
“ISW assesses that the overall Russian spring offensive is likely approaching culmination, and Russian forces may be intensifying efforts to make even marginal gains before they lose the initiative in Ukraine,” it said, using a military term denoting the point at which a unit is too stretched or exhausted to continue its advance.
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Russia Renews Bakhmut Onslaught With Kh-555 Cruise Missile Barrage-ISW
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