UFC 290 predictions — Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez: Fight card, odds, preview, prelims, picks

A championship doubleheader is set for Saturday’s UFC 290 with both the featherweight and flyweight titles on the line. In the night’s main event, featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski will battle interim champ Yair Rodriguez in a bout to unify their titles.
The co-main event sees Brandon Moreno defending his flyweight title against Alexandre Pantoja. The Brazilian holds a past win over Moreno, adding intrigue to what should be an exciting battle between two talented, well-rounded fighters.
The card caps off the UFC’s annual “International Fight Week,” which features other events such as the Hall of Fame induction. The IFW cards are always stacked with big names and this year is no different with other big names such as Robert Whittaker, Dan Hooker, Robbie Lawler and blue chip prospect Bo Nickal.
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With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s take a closer look at the full fight card with the latest odds from Caesars Sportsbook before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.
UFC 290 fight card, odds
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Alexander Volkanovski (c) -370 vs. Yair Rodriguez (ic) +290, featherweight title
Brandon Moreno (c) -210 vs. Alexandre Pantoja +175, flyweight championship
Robert Whittaker -380 vs. Dricus du Plessis +300, middleweights
Jalin Turner -280 vs. Dan Hooker +230, lightweights
Bo Nickal -2800 vs. Valentine Woodburn +1300, middleweights
Niko Price -230 vs. Robbie Lawler +190, welterweights
Yazmin Jauregui -380 vs. Denise Gomes +300, women’s strawweights
Jimmy Crute -135 vs. Alonzo Menifield +115, light heavyweights
Tatsuro Taira -1000 vs. Edgar Chairez +650, flyweights
Vitor Petrino -240 vs. Marcin Prachino +200, light heavyweights
Cameron Saaiman -550 vs. Christian Rodriguez +400, bantamweights
Jesus Aguilar -140 vs. Shannon Ross +120, flyweights
Esteban Ribovics -150 vs, Kamuela Kirk +125, lightweights
With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer, co-host of “Morning Kombat”), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).
UFC 290 picks, predictions
Campbell Brookhouse Mahjouri Mormile Wise Volkanovski (c) vs. Rodriguez Volkanovski Volkanovski
Volkanovski
Volkanovski
Volkanovski Moreno (c) vs. Pantoja Pantoja Moreno Moreno Pantoja Moreno Whittaker vs. du Plessis Whittaker du Plessis Whittaker Whittaker Whittaker Turner vs. Hooker Turner Turner Turner Turner Turner Nickal vs. Woodburn Nickal Nickal Nickal Nickal Nickal Records to date (2023)
21-14 22-13 22-13 25-10 20-15
Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez
Campbell: The best fighter on the planet takes on arguably the most dangerous test of his featherweight title reign. Yet even with the unorthodox striking attack that makes Rodriguez so unique, Volkanovski is simply operating at another level when it comes to strategy and decoding his opponent’s rhythms. Volkanovski showed in February by moving up to lightweight and neutralizing Islam Makhachev’s vaunted wrestling prowess in their disputed decision result that he can truly adapt to any opponent and any style. Look for Rodriguez to be most dangerous early until Volkanovski settles into a groove of landing big shots on the inside while using sharp movement to avoid the heavy artillery. No one is better at minimizing their opponent’s strengths than the defending champion.
Brookhouse: Rodriguez is a dynamic fighter with a fan-friendly style. He also has worked to improve his cardio, which was a major issue in the past. That said, Volkanovski is a more dynamic fighter all around, able to control where the fight takes place and constantly wears on opponents. While Rodriguez’s cardio is improved, it’s hard to expect the gas tank to hold up as Volkanovski throws constant pressure at him in a five-round fight. Rodriguez will be dangerous for the first round or two, but Volkanovski should take over and be fully in control in the second half of the fight.
Mahjouri: Volkanovski is the complete package. The featherweight champ has tremendously well-rounded skills, an elite gameplan, five-round cardio and an indomitable will. Even his competitive shortcoming against lightweight champion Islam Makhachev is considered a moral victory by most. Volkanovski is as good as it gets at 145 pounds and does not appear to be declining. Rodriguez has developed into a legitimate threat at the title level, but he’s not pound-for-pound material quite yet.
Moreno vs. Pantoja
Campbell: Riding a three-fight win streak against quality names isn’t enough to make Pantoja a very live dog entering his first UFC title shot, his prior history of having owned Moreno needs to be taken into account. The Brazilian grappler submitted Moreno in their 2016 exhibition fight on “The Ultimate Fighter” before widely outpointing him over three rounds in their 2018 rematch. Yes, Moreno has improved significantly from those days but so has Pantoja. Given the parity within this division in the aftermath of exits from former champions Demetrious Johnson and Henry Cejudo, it’s difficult to have confidence that anyone can keep the strap for an extended period. Add in Pantoja’s ability to finish opponents and his history against Moreno and you have a title upset in the making.
Mahjouri: Moreno has emerged on the other side of a four-fight, four-year saga with Deiveson Figueiredo as champion. The quadrilogy — the only of its kind in UFC history — trapped the rest of flyweight’s contenders in limbo. Perhaps the Moreno-Figueiredo vortex is blinding me from the talent that Pantoja and the rest of the division possess. But iron sharpens iron and Moreno has had four years of testing his mettle against flyweight’s “God of War.” Expect Moreno to finally overcome Pantoja.
Whittaker vs. du Plessis
Brookhouse: Does picking du Plessis make any sense? No. Whittaker is clearly the better fighter while du Plessis is frequently sloppy and looks exhausted about three minutes into every fight. So, why put his name down in the table? Sometimes you just get a feeling and that’s the case here. This is an important fight for du Plessis and he’s going to throw a lot of heat at Whittaker to try and earn a title shot. Whittaker should win, yes, but du Plessis has the kind of aura that makes you think he can pull off a huge upset and punch his ticket to a title fight with Israel Adesanya.