Corner Picks, soccer odds, best bets, picks: Juventus, and Roma to cruise as favorites, PSG an upset risk

Is there a title race in any of Europe’s top five leagues that’s worth following? I know the Bundesliga is tight, as Bayern Munich hold a one-point lead over Union Berlin and are only six points up on sixth place Freiburg, but even with such a condensed pack at the top, FiveThirtyEight’s projections still have Bayern winning the league 86% of the time.
That’s a common theme. In Serie A, Napoli are projected to win the league 94% of the time. PSG are 90% in Ligue 1, while Barcelona are 83% in La Liga. The closest race, according to the projections, is the Premier League. Arsenal, which have a five-point lead over Manchester City, are projected to win the league 58% of the time, but that seems low.
I don’t anticipate Arsenal will maintain their 100-point pace, but Man City had a golden opportunity to close the gap last week and lost to a sputtering Tottenham team without its manager. I’ll never rule City out until it’s mathematically impossible, but considering how disjointed the team has looked all year and the investigation now hanging over them, the vibes don’t seem primed for a comeback story.
Thankfully we still have relegation battles to keep us interested for the rest of the season. Those are always entertaining, assuming the clubs you root for aren’t involved.
All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
Juventus vs. Fiorentina
Date: Sunday, Feb. 12 | Time: 12 p.m. ET | Watch: CBS Sports Network/Paramount+
Speaking of clubs with investigations looming overhead, Juventus find themselves in the middle of Serie A following a 15-point deduction, but despite hitting a rough patch a couple of weeks ago, things have smoothed out a bit. In fact, things have been pretty entertaining. Juve won eight straight in Serie A before the point deduction hit, and they did it thanks to incredible defending. We started to see some regression there with losses to Napoli and Monza and a 3-3 draw to Atalanta.
What stands out to me, though, is how many more chances Juve have begun to generate. It’s almost as if the penalty and the unlikelihood of qualifying for Europe led to Max Allegri taking the leash off and allowing his team to play more freely. It’s made for a much more enjoyable watch. This weekend, against a Fiorentina side that’s kept only one clean sheet in their last 10 matches, I won’t be surprised if Juve hits the over on their own. They’ve been much more aggressive at home all year long. The Pick: Over 2.5 (+110)
Lecce vs. Roma
Date: Saturday, Feb. 11 | Time: 12 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+
This line makes absolutely no sense to me, which, admittedly, scares me a little. Not enough to get me to back off my play, though. I’ve gone over it all year. I’m not betting Roma against the top of Serie A, but I’ll take them all day, every day, against the lower half of the table. That’s where Lecce resides.
Lecce have proven to be one of the more difficult nuts to crack in the league, as they’ve allowed only 24 goals (7th in the league) on 23.7 xG (also 7th), but they don’t score any for themselves. Their xG of 18.6 on the season ranks 19th in the league. Lecce is the catenaccio stereotype of Italian football, but can they hold Roma goalless for 90 minutes? Sure, but not nearly as often as the line suggests. The Pick: Roma (-102)
Monaco vs. PSG
Date: Saturday, Feb. 11 | Time: 11 a.m. ET | Watch: fuboTV (try for free)
As I mentioned up top, PSG have a comfortable lead in Ligue 1, and with Champions League quarterfinals starting Tuesday (PSG plays Bayern on Paramount+!), it doesn’t take a genius to figure out PSG could place a bigger emphasis on the Champions League than Ligue 1 right now. Unfortunately for PSG, Kylian Mbappe’s status for that Champions League match is in doubt as he’s been hurt. There was concern about Lionel Messi’s availability, though PSG manager Christopher Galtier says Messi will be available against Bayern.
However, neither will play against Monaco on Saturday. While PSG are a deep team, not having two of the big three is a significant blow, and the third, Neymar, is himself coming off muscle fatigue. I think Monaco are well-worth a punt here. While Monaco aren’t going to win the league, they are battling with Marseille, Lens and Rennes for one of the league’s Champions League spots next year. They have far more riding on this match right now than PSG do. The Pick: Monaco (+160)
Weekend Parlay
It’s only three legs again this week, but it pays +147.
Arsenal (-235)
Lille (-205)
(-205) Napoli (-600)