UFC 291 predictions — Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje: Fight card, odds, preview, prelims, expert picks

Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje bring their unrivaled appetites for destruction to the marquee of UFC 291. The rivals meet in Salt Lake City on Saturday for the sequel to their 2018 classic. At stake is the ceremonial BMF title and a step towards challenging for the UFC lightweight championship.
Poirier and Gaethje are elite lightweights that rank among the most violent fighters in UFC history, but knockout and bonuses aren’t enough to secure a place among legends. A victory is imperative for two fighters who have come close but repeatedly fallen short when it matters most. Poirier and Gaethje have both lost twice in UFC title fights and the window is closing on their road to El Dorado. Could the third time be the charm with a strong effort on Saturday?
Saturday also spotlights the light heavyweight debut of Alex Pereira, the former middleweight champion. Welcoming Pereira up a weight class is former light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz. The division is wide open after Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill both vacated the UFC light heavyweight title due to injury. A win on Saturday nicely situates Blachowicz or Pereira to challenge for the belt without a home.
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With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s take a closer look at the full fight card with the latest odds from Caesars Sportsbook before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.
UFC 291 fight card, odds
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Dustin Poirier -150 vs. Justin Gaethje +125, lightweights
Jan Blachowicz -110 vs. Alex Pereira -110, light heavyweights
Bobby Green -400 vs. Tony Ferguson +310, lightweights
Stephen Thompson -140 vs. Michel Pereira +120, welterweights
Kevin Holland -150 vs. Michael Chiesa +125, welterweights
Gabriel Bonfim -330 vs. Trevin Giles +260, welterweights
Marcos Rogerio de Lima -230 vs. Derrick Lewis +190, heavyweights
Roman Kopylov -200 vs. Claudio Ribeiro +170, middleweights
Jake Matthews -260 vs. Darrius Flowers +210, welterweights
CJ Vergara -150 vs. Vinicius Salvador +125, flyweights
Matthew Semelsberger -210 vs. Uros Medic +175, welterweights
Miranda Maverick -270 vs. Priscila Cachoeira +220, women’s flyweights
With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer, co-host of “Morning Kombat”), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).
UFC 291 picks, predictions
Campbell Brookhouse Mahjouri Mormile Wise Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje Poirier Poirier Poirier
Poirier Gaethje Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira Pereira Blachowicz Blachowicz
Pereira Pereira Bobby Green vs. Tony Ferguson Green Ferguson Green
Ferguson Green Stephen Thompson vs. Michel Pereira Pereira Thompson Thompson
Thompson Pereira Kevin Holland vs. Michael Chiesa Chiesa Holland Chiesa
Chiesa Holland Records to date (2023)
24-16 25-15 24-16 28-12 22-18
Poirier vs. Gaethje
Campbell: Five years removed from their first action classic, both former interim titleholders have evolved and improved. But the equation remains the same entering their BMF title rematch: either Poirier, who is the more proven dynamic and technical striker of the two, can weather the storm long enough to dig in and finish Gaethje or the championship rounds could get dicey against a fighter so attuned for dramatic recuperations in the midst of heavy fire. If Poirier is quick without hurrying and respectful of how quickly the tide can turn against Gaethje, a second violent finish — which is the only kind Gaethje succumbs to — is very possible.
Brookhouse: Gaethje is a warrior and has made a lot of subtle improvements in his approach in his career. However, Poirier is still the better all-around fighter and being just a bit slicker in his approach is the key to his win here. Both men are going to get hit, there’s no way around it in a fight like this. Poirier is going to hit more often and that will start to wear on Gaethje before Poirier manages to get a late stoppage.
Mahjouri: Gaethje has made great strides in controlling chaos and now presents one of the most grueling challenges in MMA. But Poirier has continued to fine-tune his well-rounded offense and remains the better overall fighter. Gaethje probably has a better chance than he did in their 2018 meeting, but Poirier wins this fight more often than not over the long haul.
Blachowicz vs. Pereira
Campbell: The former middleweight champion, who benefitted from an old kickboxing rivalry against Israel Adesanya to advance quickly into the title picture at 185 pounds, now enters a second UFC division on the doorstep of another title shot. The light heavyweight division remains wide open after the last two champions — Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill — both vacated the title due to injury immediately after winning it. Should Pereira defeat former champion Jan Blachowicz in Saturday’s co-feature, a shot at the vacant crown would be likely. To beat Blachowicz, he will need to showcase the evolution of his takedown defense and jiu-jitsu under the tutelage of former champion Glover Teixeira. “The Legendary Polish Power” of Blachowicz, 40, is no joke. But Pereira has held light heavyweight titles in kickboxing and has found a way throughout his brief UFC run to land the most important punch in a fight when it matters most.
Brookhouse: It’s hard to pick against a guy like Pereira. After all, Pereira blitzed through his first handful of UFC fights before knocking out Israel Adesanya and becoming middleweight champion. After losing the rematch, Pereira now moves up to light heavyweight and right into deep waters. Blachowicz just feels like a really bad opponent for Pereira. He’s big, strong, tough as nails and is decent at takedowns. If Adesanya could take Pereira down, it only makes sense that Bllachowicz will be able to do so as well. As long as Blachowicz doesn’t get slept by a single shot, I think this fight sees Pereira on his back for nearly the entire length of the fight.
Thompson vs. Pereira
Brookhouse: Pereira has patched up some of his cardio issues, in part by turning down a little bit of the wildness he brought to the cage. He’s still a dynamic and unorthodox striker and if Thompson isn’t on his game, it could be a wash. That said, I think Thompson is going to show up ready to make a statement as he tries to work toward one final title shot. The way he looked against Kevin Holland his last time out shows Thompson is not washed and he should be able to edge out a striking battle.
Mahjouri: Can you believe that “Wonderboy” is 40 years old? Thompson’s days as a title contender are likely over, but he is the measuring stick for future challengers. I don’t see Pereira sniffing gold. He’s an athletic marvel who fights with more mindfulness these days, but he doesn’t have the skills of a Belal Muhammad, Gilbert Burns, or Shavkat Rakhmonov. Thompson should likely win this over 15 minutes.