Hands-free systems like General Motors’ Super Cruise are expected to continue leading the available technology for years.
Super Cruise was launched in 2017.
A new automated driving forecast from Telemetry projects 16 million Level 4 vehicles will be deployed annually by 2035.
Don’t expect vehicles that are fully autonomous in all conditions to be a widespread phenomenon any time soon even as advanced driver-assistance technology continues to improve and expand in the U.S. vehicle fleet, according to a key automotive expert.
In fact, the most advanced technology, described as Level 5 where there’s also no expectation a human would ever need to take control of a vehicle, isn’t forecast at all in the next decade. That doesn’t mean the technology is stalling because automakers will continue to roll out advanced driver-assistance technology on more and more vehicles.
That’s the message from automotive expert Sam Abuelsamid, vice president of market research at Telemetry.
Abuelsamid, in a discussion with the Automotive Press Association in Detroit on Monday, Sept. 29, said hands-off systems, such as General Motors’ Super Cruise, will continue to lead the technology being deployed through the remainder of this decade. So-called eyes-off technology carries greater risks and challenges for automakers, he noted.
Regarding Super Cruise, which launched as the first hands-free system in 2017, Abuelsamid said it has numerous advances in its latest version.
And notably, GM plans to double its fleet of Super-Cruise-enabled vehicles to 720,000, “with the technology capable of operating on 750,000 miles of U.S. and Canadian roads by the end of this year,” according to prior reporting from the Detroit Free Press, part of the USA TODAY Network.
“We’re seeing a lot of increased capability in these systems,” Abuelsamid said, even as they remain limited.However, Abuelsamid says the shift to more autonomy is coming. Abuelsamid said that in the late 2020s we should start seeing consumer vehicles that offer automated highway driving.
He said Telemetry projects that by 2035, more than 16 million Level 4 vehicles, what are autonomous vehicles that still have certain constraints on their operations, will be deployed annually across the globe, with most of those − almost 10 million − in China.
That would include almost 12 million robotaxis and shuttles, 2 million delivery vehicles and 2.4 million personal-use vehicles. Waymo’s autonomous vehicles, which currently operate in a number of U.S. cities, including Phoenix and San Francisco, are considered Level 4.
It’s worth noting, however, that fully hands-free technology is not legally allowed currently in China, he said.Abuelsamid pointed to new regulations imposed on advanced driver-assistance systems in China following a crash in April that left three people dead. The country banned “beta testing” on public roads as well as certain features, such as remote summon or parking, and isn’t allowing certain terms, such as “autonomous driving,” to be used in marketing.
GM’s Super Cruise expands as true self-driving cars remain elusive
