Fantasy football: Prescott, Olave among 12 players on do-not-draft list

1 of 5 | Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott could struggle to provide elite statistics for fantasy football teams because of a tough schedule. File Photo by Ian Halperin/UPI | License Photo
MIAMI, Aug. 29 (UPI) — Dak Prescott, Rachaad White and Chris Olave are among 12 players on my do-not-draft list for the 2024 fantasy football season. I considered average draft position, schedule difficulty, past production and more when determining which players to add to this list. My do-not-draft candidates often start the season with tough schedules, which could hamper your team early on and make it more difficult to make the playoffs. Advertisement
My list of must-draft options, who have easy early schedules, is available here.
My Top 200 overall rankings and positional rankings for quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers also are available and will be updated.
Quarterback
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, Bye Week 7, ADP 76.5
Prescott was a Top-3 quarterback last season and could once again provide Top-10 statistics, but I would rather take several other options with a later average draft position, including Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford.
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The Dallas Cowboys quarterback still will be throwing to one of the best wide receivers in football, CeeDee Lamb. He also should pepper the field with passing attempts on a regular basis to complement what could be a shaky running game.
I expect Prescott to get off to a slow start, with four of his first five games against teams that ranked inside the Top 10 for the fewest fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks in 2023.
That stretch includes two of his first three games against the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens, who allowed the respective second- and fourth-fewest points to the position.
He has just one matchup within the first eight weeks against a team that ranked inside the Top 10 for the most points allowed to quarterbacks in 2023. Prescott is a better midseason trade target than he is a Week 1 starter.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers, Bye Week 5, ADP 124
The Los Angeles Chargers offense will look completely different in 2024 after front office and coaching changes and roster turnover. Herbert, who dealt with a preseason foot injury, is expected to play in Week 1, but could get off to a glacially slow start.
His schedule also contains just two games against teams that ranked inside the Top 10 for the most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks last season, including just one such matchup within the first 12 weeks of the season.
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His early schedule is absolutely brutal, with four-consecutive matchups to start the season against teams that ranked inside the Top 10 for the fewest points allowed to quarterbacks.
Herbert should be avoided in all standard re-draft formats.
Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons, Bye Week 12, ADP 134.5
Cousins has a respectable, double-digit round average draft position, but I wouldn’t lean on him as my every-week starter. The Atlanta Falcons’ off-season addition could struggle early on, with four of his first six games against teams that ranked inside the Top 10 for the fewest points allowed to quarterbacks last season.
He also could face pressure from Falcons backup quarterback Michael Penix Jr., the No. 8 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, if he struggles to produce. I would only roster Cousins if I had another quarterback I could rotate into my starting lineup.
Running back
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Bye Week 11, ADP 33.5
White is being taken as RB14 in drafts, which is slightly too high for my liking. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers ball carrier finished with the seventh-most fantasy points among running backs in 2023.
This year, his schedule includes eight games — the most among running backs — against teams that ranked inside the Top 10 for the fewest points allowed to the position last season.
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While White still should provide RB2 value in great matchups, I would rather have several other running backs — who can be drafted later — with easier schedules or selecting a wide receiver at his draft position.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints, Bye Week 12, ADP 43.5
Kamara was once a top-tier RB1, but has shown signs of being less explosive over the last several seasons. He should still provide value because of his pass-catching ability, but sits at No. 21 in my running back rankings because of an expected decline and tough schedule.
The New Orleans Saints’ schedule has six games against teams that ranked inside the Top 10 for the fewest points allowed to running backs last season. That stretch includes four-consecutive such games from Week 3 through Week 6, with three of those games against teams that ranked inside the Top 5 for the fewest points allowed to the position.
I still don’t mind Kamara as an RB2 or flex play, but I would wait it out in drafts so he is a value for your team. Don’t pick him before the fifth round in drafts for leagues with at least 10 teams and two starting running back slots. He also could be a decent trade target after potential struggles through Week 6.
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James Conner, Arizona Cardinals, Bye Week 11, ADP 58.5
Conner doesn’t have a terrible full-season schedule, but could struggle early on. That early stretch includes three of his first five games against teams that ranked inside the Top 5 for the fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs last season.
The Cardinals also picked up running back Trey Benson in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. He will most likely be worked into the rotation in the Cardinals’ new-look attack. Like Kamara, I would only pick up Conner in your draft if he slips well past his average draft position. He would ideally be used as a matchup-based RB2 for fantasy team owners that chose to go wide-receiver heavy early in their drafts.
Wide receiver
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons, Bye Week 12, ADP 21.5
As previously mentioned, I expect Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins to get off to a slow start, which might impact his pass catchers. Like Cousins, London will face a tough schedule, with five games against teams that ranked inside the Top 10 for the fewest fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
London currently has an average draft position in the second round for leagues that include at least 12 teams. That is way too early for my liking, as his production level is too unpredictable.
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I also expect Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts and running back Bijan Robinson to draw a large portion of the target share in Atlanta, limiting London’s upside. The Falcons wide receiver also totaled just six touchdowns over his first 33 games in the league. It seems like a longshot to think he will suddenly become a scoring machine, especially with Robinson and Pitts also making plays in the red zone.
You should target a wide receiver who plays a larger role in his offense if you are required to use a late second- or early third-round pick on them.
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints, Bye Week 12, ADP 25
Olave is another wide receiver with a late second- or early third-round average draft position. I like him much better as a WR2/WR3 than a WR1 because of a brutal schedule and potential inconsistency from his quarterback.
The New Orleans Saints schedule includes seven games against teams that ranked inside the Top 10 for the fewest fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, tied for the most in the NFL.
Olave is still among my Top 10 wide receivers, but I prefer Puka Nacua and Garett Wilson, among others, as a WR1.
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Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos, Bye Week 14, ADP 111
Sutton is No. 41 in my wide receiver rankings, which is pretty close to his average draft position, but I would definitely look elsewhere if you need a reliable fantasy football option.
The Denver Broncos pass catcher totaled a career-high 10 touchdowns last season, but will play with a new quarterback again in 2024. Sutton eclipsed 77 receiving yards in just one game last season. He totaled just one 100-yard game over the last two seasons.
This year, he will play a schedule that features seven games against teams that ranked inside the Top 10 for the fewest fantasy points allowed to wide receivers last season. That schedule also features just two matchups against teams that ranked inside the Top 10 for the most fantasy points allowed to the position.
I wouldn’t count on Sutton to be anymore more than a boom-or-bust WR3 in leagues with at least 12 teams.
Defenses
Baltimore Ravens, Bye Week 14, ADP 176
First five games: at KC, vs. LV, at DAL, vs. BUF, at CIN
Buffalo Bills, Bye Week 12, ADP 215.5
First five games: vs. ARI, at MIA, vs. JAX, at BAL, at HOU
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Green Bay Packers, Bye Week 10, ADP 303.5
First five games: at PHI, vs. IND, at TEN, vs. MIN, at LAR