Powerful winter storm system could create hazardous Thanksgiving travel across Michigan

This holiday week is going to start out with mild weather on Monday. But then the forecast is headed downhill fast, with rain developing Monday night into Tuesday across much of Michigan.
On Wednesday, the forecast switch gets flipped to winter. Cold air will send our high temperatures tumbling throughout the day, and rain will change to snow in some areas. Parts of Northern Michigan could see accumulating snow.
Right now, the heaviest snow looks like it will fall in a swath from Cadillac north to Gaylord, and push north into Petoskey and the Tip of the Mitt area.
And then the winds are forecast to come roaring in. Winds gusts could hit 45 mph in some parts of Michigan between Wednesday night and Thursday. Coupled with the snow, this could lead to blustery conditions that could drop visibility and make driving hazardous.
For the southern half of the Lower Peninsula, there’s chance for snow on Thanksgiving, but it looks like it will be mostly lake-effect. The National Weather Service said snow is forecast to be heaviest along and west of U.S. 131.
“Once the cold air slams in to the region Wednesday, it’ll be here through the weekend with highs in the mid 30s,” the NWS meteorologists in Grand Rapids said in today’s forecast notes. “Lake effect snow showers will continue on Thanksgiving with some accumulation possible.”
Here are the holiday week forecast highlights from the NWS offices across Michigan:
A powerful storm system will bring a dramatic weather shift to Michigan on Wednesday, with confidence increasing for significant snowfall, strong winds and hazardous travel conditions just as Thanksgiving holiday travel peaks.
The NWS says an impactful winter weather event is becoming increasingly likely Wednesday evening through Friday across northwest Lower Michigan and the eastern Upper Peninsula.
The forecast is calling for up to a 70% chances of 6 inches or more of snow across the western Upper Peninsula by Thanksgiving Day. Heavy snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour are possible under organized bands, combined with wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph that could create rapid visibility drops, blowing and drifting snow, and extremely hazardous travel conditions.
Before the winter blast arrives, Michigan residents can expect mild conditions to start the week. Monday will see partly sunny skies with highs climbing into the lower 50s across southern Michigan and upper 40s to low 50s in northern areas.
Rain will develop Monday night and continue through Tuesday. Temperatures Tuesday will again reach the 50s before the pattern dramatically shifts.
Wednesday morning brings the arrival of a strong cold front that will sweep across Michigan, transitioning rain to snow during the day. Behind the front, temperatures will fall throughout the day with west to northwest winds increasing to wind advisory levels by early Wednesday afternoon.
Wind gusts could potentially exceed 40 mph, with some coastal locations possibly seeing gusts over 50 mph. The combination of wet, heavy snow and strong winds may result in power outages.
Lake effect snow will develop Wednesday evening and continue through Thanksgiving Day as bitterly cold air moves over the relatively warm Great Lakes waters.
Wave heights on Lake Superior will build to 8 to 12 feet lakewide, with areas near the Keweenaw Peninsula and between Marquette and Grand Marais potentially seeing 16 foot waves. Gale warnings with winds up to 45 knots are expected on Lake Superior Wednesday and Thursday.
The Gaylord office emphasizes that while many people may focus on snowfall amounts, the potential impacts from forecast winds cannot be understated in terms of holiday travel Wednesday night and Thursday.
Potential winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 45 mph or higher would create rapid drops in visibility in falling snow, especially with blowing snow across north-south oriented roads, drifting snow on roadways, and likely hazardous travel for an extended period.
Thanksgiving Day will remain cold with highs only in the mid 30s and wind chills in the teens and 20s. Lake effect snow showers will continue, particularly in traditional snow belts along the Lake Michigan shoreline and downwind of Lake Superior. The Detroit office notes that lake effect may continue into Friday with additional snowfall potential.
Looking ahead to the extended holiday weekend, another storm system appears likely to impact Michigan Saturday into Sunday, though specific details remain uncertain.